Silberjunge: Interview im Deutschen Anlegerfernsehen
Sehr Leserinnen und Leser,
Andreas Scholz vom Deutschen Anlegerfernsehen interviewte mich heute. Sie können das gesamte Gespräch mit einer Länge von fast 13 Minuten unter folgendem Link abfragen:
» http://www.daf.fm/video/boersenplatz-5-silberjunge---silber-vor-ausbruch-ende-2012-bei-100--50138128-DE0008469008.html
In dem Interview spreche ich die gestrige Spekulation an, dass die Fed für 1.000 Milliarden Dollar neue Wertpapierkäufe durchführen wird. Die Nachrichtenagentur Bloomberg berichtete gestern darüber und erwähnte in diesem Zusammenhang gleich den Chefvolkswirten von Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, der dass daraus resultierende Wirtschaftswachstum auf 0,4 Prozent bezifferte. Näheres können Sie unten am Anhang entnehmen.
2010 09 14 Fed Spekulation über neue Wertpapierkäufe
Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: Sep 14 2010 22:40:45
Treasuries, Gold Gain, Dollar Slips on Fed Bond-Buy Speculation
By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries gained, gold surged to a
record and the dollar tumbled to a 15-year low against the yen
on speculation the Federal Reserve will purchase as much as $1
trillion in bonds to bolster the economy. U.S. stocks declined.
The 10-year Treasury yield slid 9 basis points to 2.67
percent at 4 p.m. in New York. Gold futures surged as much as
2.4 percent to $1,276.50 an ounce, while the Dollar Index, which
gauges the U.S. currency against six major trading partners,
slumped 0.9 percent and the Swiss franc touched $1 for the first
time this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent
to 1,121.10, erasing gains of as much as 0.5 percent, as a slump
in financial shares offset a rally by technology companies.
A total of $1 trillion in bond purchases would improve
stability in financial markets and boost real gross domestic
product by as much as 0.4 percentage point, Goldman Sachs Group
Inc.’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said. The central bank’s
Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week to set policy.
“The Fed has a couple of more bullets in the chamber,”
said Michael Nasto, senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc.,
which manages about $2.5 billion in San Antonio. “There’s
expectation of monetary easing through bond purchases. That
would be a mild positive for the economy. That explains why
stocks and bonds are rising and the U.S. dollar is selling
off.”
Global Stocks
The MSCI World Index of stocks in 24 developed nations rose
for a fifth day, the longest streak of gains since June, with a
0.3 percent advance. The global measure dropped earlier after
German investor confidence slumped to a 19-month low and
concerns grew that China will cool its real-estate market.
U.S. equities swung between gains and losses during the
final hour of trading, before closing lower, as Bank of America
Corp. dragged down financial stocks, offsetting a rally in
technology shares.
The Association of Financial Guaranty Insurers told Bank of
America, the largest U.S. lender by assets, it should repurchase
as much as $20 billion in home loans that were based on wrong or
missing information, according to letter obtained by Bloomberg
News. Bank of America shares slumped 1.9 percent and Wells Fargo
& Co. dropped 1.7 percent.
Cisco Systems Inc. climbed 0.9 percent, helping lead a
measure of technology companies to the biggest gain among 10
groups in the S&P 500, after saying it will start paying a
dividend this fiscal year. The “current thinking” is for a
dividend yield of 1 percent to 2 percent, according to a
presentation at the annual analyst conference today at Cisco’s
headquarters in San Jose, California.
Treasury Yields
Two-year Treasury yields slipped 3 basis points to 0.5
percent, while 30-year yields lost 6 basis points to 3.79
percent.
Bond investors are growing more convinced that Fed Chairman
Ben S. Bernanke will push Treasury yields down to the levels of
the 1950s with another round of asset purchases.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Pacific Investment Management
Co. project the Fed will resume quantitative easing by buying
government debt as soon as this year to prevent what they see as
a 25 percent chance the economy will slip back into a recession.
Bank of America says the central bank will send the 10-year note
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2010 09 14 Fed Spekulation über neue Wertpapierkäufe
yield to a record low of 1.75 percent in the first quarter of
2011.
If Fed officials engage in further easing, Hatzius said,
they may announce their purchases in increments, rather than
announcing a large “shock and awe” sum. Goldman Sachs
correctly projected yields will slide in 2010 as the recovery
faltered, and forecasts the 10-year note will end the year at
2.5 percent. Hatzius said he doesn’t expect an announcement at
the September meeting, while one is possible in November or
December.
November Announcement
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown
Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, said he has “played down”
the possibility of the Fed announcing a major asset-purchase
plan in November.
“The bar to more Fed action is a significant deterioration
of the economy, which we did not expect,” he wrote in a note to
clients. “The FOMC meeting in November is a day after the
election, which would give it an air of political
considerations.”
Gold futures for December delivery rose $24.60, or 2
percent, to $1,271.70 an ounce on the Comex in New York after
touching $1,276.50. The previous all-time high was $1,266.50 on
June 21.
Gold, heading for the 10th straight annual gain, has
offered insurance against fluctuations in the dollar and the
euro, and the metal has outperformed most stocks and bonds this
year. The Fed and the European Central Bank have kept benchmark
lending rates at the lowest level ever to revive the economy.
Dollar Weakens
The dollar weakened against all but one of 16 most-traded
peers, dropping to parity with the Swiss franc for the first
time since December and falling to $1.30 versus the euro for the
first time since Aug. 11. The yen traded below 83 per dollar for
the first time since 1995 after Prime Minister Naoto Kan beat
Ichiro Ozawa in a party vote today, reducing the likelihood the
government will step in to weaken the currency.
The Dollar Index has dropped 1.9 percent in the last two
days, the most since July 2.
China’s yuan surged to the strongest level since 1993 on
speculation the government will allow appreciation to head off
U.S. trade sanctions as its economy improves. The currency
gained 0.2 percent to 6.7469 per dollar and touched 6.7400, the
strongest level since the central bank unified official and
market exchange rates at the end of 1993.
European Stocks
European stocks were little changed, with the Stoxx Europe
600 Index closing near a four-month high, as better-thanestimated
U.S. retail sales offset a selloff in utilities and a
slump in German investor confidence. The ZEW Center for European
Economic Research showed German investor confidence fell more
than economists forecast to a 19-month low in September.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent, rising for
a fourth straight day.
Other commodities rallied amid speculation potential
quantitative easing by the Fed will stoke inflation. The S&P
GSCI Total Return Index climbed 0.3 percent to a one-month high.
Cotton extended a rally to a 15-year high amid tightening
supplies, with December futures surging 1.9 percent to 94.5
cents a pound. Corn futures rose to the highest price in almost
two years on speculation that the U.S. crop will be smaller than
the government forecast. Corn for December delivery rose 11.5
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2010 09 14 Fed Spekulation über neue Wertpapierkäufe
cents, or 2.4 percent, to close at $4.95 a bushel in Chicago.
--With assistance from Joshua Zumbrun in Washington, Liz Capo
McCormick, Catarina Saraiva, Allison Bennett in New York,
Stephen Kirkland and Matthew Brown in London and Yasuhiko Seki
in Tokyo. Editors: Stephanie Borise, Nick Baker
To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael P. Regan in New York at +1-212-617-7747 or
Mregan12@bloomberg.net;
Rita Nazareth in New York at +1-212-617-8908 or
rnazareth@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Nick Baker at +1-212-617-5919 or nbaker7@bloomberg.net.
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-0- Sep/14/2010 20:40 GMT
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Copyright (c) 2010, Bloomberg, L. P.
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